When the government’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) announced for the 2025-27 period was compared with the 2023-26 MTP announced in 2023, Türkiye’s export targets for 2024 and 2026 were lowered by 13 billion dollars. Aegean Exporters’ Association (EİB) Coordinator Chairman Jak Eskinazi made a statement on the subject; “It is written in the program that the excessive appreciation of the Turkish lira will cause an export loss of 13 billion dollars in 3 years. We are concerned that the realization will be even worse”.
The US dollar, which was stated in the MTP announced in 2023 to be 36.8 TL on average in 2024, was revised to 33.2 TL in the latest MTP announced. This means a 9.8 percent loss of blood in the US dollar against the TL. According to the 2025-27 MTP targets; the loss of blood in the dollar exchange rate against the TL will continue in 2025 and 2026.
The dollar exchange rate, which was emphasized in the previous MTP as the annual average for 2025 to be 43.9 TL, was pulled down to 42 TL in the MTP covering the 2025/27 period. The forecast of an average of 47.8 TL for 2026 was also reduced to 44 TL.
“We cannot continue for another 3 years with exchange rates rising lower than inflation figures”
Describing the current outlook as dire for exporters, Jak Eskinazi said: “In the MTP covering the years 2024-26, annual inflation for 2024 was projected as 33 percent. Today, we see that this target has been increased to 41.5 percent. We regret to see that annual export targets have been reduced from 267 billion USD to 264 billion USD for 2024, from 283.6 billion USD to 279.6 billion USD for 2025, and from 302.2 billion USD to 296.1 billion USD for 2026.”
He emphasized that after the inflation in Türkiye climbed after September 2021, exchange rates did not increase at the same rate and that they could not reflect the resulting cost differences to customers at the same rate, and he concluded his words by saying: “We have lost our competitiveness in the global market. We are going through a process where demand is also coy around the world. We are in a position around 40 percent more expensive than our competitors. Turkish exporters continue their business without making a profit or at a loss, risking the melting of their equity capital in order not to lose customers. We cannot continue for another 3 years with exchange rates increasing lower than inflation figures. If Turkish exporters are not given a lifeline, these export targets will be missed, our exporters will lose markets, and this will increase the bad situation in different points of the Turkish economy with a domino effect.”
“Otherwise, exports will be intubated“
Eskinazi indicated that new state supports should be implemented for exporters according to their performance, he said: “Otherwise, exports will be intubated. We emphasize that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye should remove the pressure on the dollar exchange rate and that the dollar exchange rate should reach the point where it should be in the free market.”