An artificial intelligence-supported application that makes predictions about cotton prices has been developed in order to manage the risks in the cotton market correctly. The cotcast.ai application, developed within the scope of the TÜBİTAK project with the initiatives of Emre Balduk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Nazar Tekstil, one of the leading yarn manufacturers in Türkiye, and Vice President Nazlı Ceylan Balduk Kurtul and Hey Teknoloji co-founder Ertuğrul Kazancı, has been made available through Microsoft Azure infrastructure. The application is stated to be completely domestic and provides service to its users in English and Turkish.
“We have reached over 1000 users both at home and abroad”
Cotcast.ai Board Member Nazlı Ceylan Balduk Kurtul told AA that they combined the cotton experience of the textile industry, in which they have been operating for three generations, with the vision of technology in artificial intelligence within the scope of the TÜBİTAK project.
Kurtul stated that they were furthering studies to conduct cost and risk analysis when purchasing cotton for the textile factory and that this application was developed within this scope with a TÜBİTAK project, and noted that as a woman, she was proud to be in the development process of an artificial intelligence-based technology. Kurtul indicated that the application was born out of the need to make more accurate estimates of cotton prices and that they have currently reached over 1000 users both domestically and abroad, primarily in Belgium, Switzerland, Qatar, Brazil and the USA, meanwhile divulging that the system offers the potential to better manage processes that are difficult to manage with traditional methods.
“Companies that determine raw material prices correctly are 1-0 ahead”
Noting that they first investigated the current status and potential areas of use of artificial intelligence technologies in the cotton sector and saw that there was no application similar to the model they developed in other countries, Nazlı Ceylan Balduk Kurtul said: “We were also excited because a domestic artificial intelligence application would be a first in the world. We determined how artificial intelligence could create added value in the cotton market. At this stage, we conducted detailed analyses to understand the role of artificial intelligence in efficiency, cost reduction and market forecasts. We created a large database on cotton production and its market. This data included various parameters such as weather information, production quantities and market prices. We organized the collected data and prepared it for the artificial intelligence algorithm.”
Kurtul disclosed that in the difficult competitive conditions in the textile sector, companies that determine the raw material price correctly start 1-0 ahead and gain an advantage, that a lot of cotton is used in yarn factories, noting that a 1-cent correct or incorrect estimate can lead to serious changes in the financial structure of the company, and that with the application, purchasing decisions can be made at the right time using real-time market data.
Cotcast.ai provides detailed information and analysis on the cotton market
Stating that the cotcast.ai application also provides the opportunity to create a sustainable business model by securing profit margins, Nazlı Ceylan Balduk Kurtul disclosed that cotton is of vital importance to the sector, accounting for approximately 31 percent of all fibers used in the global industry. Nazlı Ceylan Balduk Kurtul added that thanks to the application supported by global data and up-to-date information, it is also possible to access detailed information on cotton production, demand, stocks and prices worldwide.
Emphasizing that the application can establish a direct relationship between weather data (temperature, precipitation, humidity) and cotton production quantities, Kurtul said: “For example, we can analyse the effect of certain temperature and humidity levels on cotton productivity and determine how long-term climate changes affect production trends. By analysing historical price data, we can determine seasonal and periodic price fluctuations.”
“cotcast.ai’s accuracy rate is 99.45 percent”
Nazlı Ceylan Balduk Kurtul relayed that several tests were conducted on the model, stating: “In order to prove the accuracy of our model, we conducted backtest simulations that showed how serious gains could be achieved when applied on past data, and these simulations revealed that cotcast.ai made predictions with an accuracy rate of 99.45 percent.”
Kurtul indicated that they will be able to more accurately predict and analyse future trends in the cotton market as well as other agricultural commodities using the cotcast.ai algorithm and concluded her words by saying: “This will support strategic decision-making processes by providing farmers and investors with more reliable and detailed market information. We will contribute to sustainability goals by developing new technologies that will encourage and support sustainable agricultural practices with cotcast.ai data analytics. We will encourage innovation by using cotcast.ai technology to increase our global competitiveness in the cotton market.”