International Textile Manufacturers Federation ITMF provides a way for us to take a closer look at the developments and expectations in the markets with its 4th Corona-pandemic research. 600 companies participated in the research on the effects of corona-pandemic on the global textile value chain conducted from 20 May and 8 June, among ITMF members and affiliated companies and associations.
According to the survey, on a global scale, current orders continue to be down on average by more than -40%. The most contraction is expected with a shrinkage of more than 50% in the South American market. In addition, the expectation of contraction in the South East Asia region is the lowest in all regions with 30%. The forecast decline in orders in Europe which include Turkey were recorded as 35%.
When looking at expected turnover, the expectations remained unchanged since the previous Corona-Survey. On average, companies are expecting their turnover to plummet by -32%. The range between regions differs with from -22% in South East Asia to -36% in East Asia. Turnover losses in the African and South American regions are expected to be more than 40%.
When looking at the ITMF survey’s different segments in the textile value chain, all segments – from spinners to garment producers – recorded significant decreases in orders. Also, integrated producers seem to have fared slightly better with -26%, while the other segments expect turnover in 2020 to be falling in the range of -31% to – 34%; Fibre manufacturers -33%, Weaving-Knitting manufacturers -33%, Clothing manufacturers -31% and others -34%.
When is the return to pre-crisis levels?
In the survey, the participants were also asked when to return to pre-crisis levels. 23% of the participants expect this in the first quarter of 2021. However, 21% of the participants have estimated to reach this level in the second quarter of 2021. 14% of the participants predict that pre-crisis levels will be caught in the third quarter of 2021. In addition to these estimates, 20% of the participants expect a faster recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In the first survey of ITMF; the predictions that the effect of the pandemic will be lower were reflected in the figures. However, in the 2nd and 3rd studies; the figures related to the effects of the pandemic were higher and close to each other. This shows that manufacturers have gained more information about the pandemic over time, clearly see the effects in the procurement process and a market expectation has developed accordingly.